With six months to go until the presidential election, hidden within the stock market may be clues as to who will occupy the White House come January.
Historically, the state of the US economy in the lead-up to an election has correlated strongly with how the country votes.
Investors often look for patterns in how markets have behaved in the past to predict what might happen in the future.
An analysis of S&P 500 returns over the last 90 years reveals that in election years when the sitting president is re-elected, economic growth is strong beforehand.
By contrast, when the incumbent loses, America’s biggest companies appear to be losing steam – sowing seeds of doubt as to the country’s economy and leadership.
This year, the S&P 500…
