It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in XXX of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In XXX simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up…