In almost any other country, Nicolas Maduro’s electoral chances would be considered hopeless.

With less than two weeks to go until the presidential election, the Venezuelan ruler must overcome his rival’s 40-point-plus lead in the polls to remain in power — at a time he’s so unpopular he has a hard time getting his own supporters to attend his rallies.

But Venezuela’s pivotal elections are not being held under normal democratic conditions, and the regime’s well-stocked arsenal of manipulation and intimidation tools have traditionally been so effective in chipping away at rivals’ leads that experts believe the outcome of the July 28 vote is still an open question.

“You very seldom see an election where the gap between…